The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election
Andreas Graefe, Randall J. Jones, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán
The PollyVote is an evidence-based formula designed to forecast election outcomes, using both well-established methods and innovations. Forecasting error is reduced by combining forecasts within and across different methods, equally weighted. Following this rule, the PollyVote has accurately forecast the outcome of the last three presidential elections by as much as a year in advance of Election Day. Updated twice a week in 2004 (Cuzán, Armstrong, and Jones2005a; 2005b) and in subsequent elections at least once daily, at no time has the PollyVote called the election for any other than the winner. Moreover, on average across the past six elections, the PollyVote forecast has been more accurate than any of its component methods (Graefe et al. 2014a; 2014b).