by Joyce E. Berg, Christopher E. Penney. Thomas Rietz
How do partisan politics affect future elections? Using the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), we assess the political impact of several important events during Fall 2013: The U.S. Government shutdown, the Senate eliminating filibusters for nominations (the “nuclear option”) and implementing ObamaCare. Did these events have meaningful effects on Congressional control prospects in the 2014 election? According to IEM price changes, Republican chances fell dramatically when the government shut down. They did not recover upon resolution. Eliminating filibusters hurt Democratic chances. Various aspects of the ObamaCare roll out and reporting had little effect. Similarly, new announcements that incumbents would not run for reelection had little effect. In contrast, the budget resolution reinforced the status quo. Overall, political rhetoric does not appear to affect congressional prospects. Instead, actions matter: deliberate partisan actions of Congress adversely affect the initiating party’s prospects, while bipartisan initiatives help the party that initiates the bipartisan effort.
Partisan Politics and Congressional Election Prospects: Evidence from the Iowa Electronic Markets, PS: Political Science and Politics, by Joyce E. Berg, Christopher E. Penney. Thomas Rietz/ Volume 48 / Issue 04 / October 2015, pp 573-578