2016 Elections

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY In general, election forecasting has become easier in recent years. The increased polarization of the public and […]

2016 Elections

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump? Alan I. Abramowitz, (@AlanIAbramowitz), Emory University The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. […]

2016 Elections

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook University The Primary Model predicts with 87-percent certainty that Republican Donald Trump will defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. The forecast is unconditional, final, […]

2016 Elections

College Debate 2016 Convention and Town Hall

College Debate 2016 Convention and Town Hall by Gigi Gokcek, Ph.D. and Hanna Rodriguez-Farrar, Ph.D., Ed.D. Since College Debate 2016’s official kickoff on June 1, approximately 150 student delegates from all 50 states and the […]